The observed strong negative rainfall teleconnections with the equatorial east Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model. The regional classifications by previous studies (e.g. The second one is the S-Ethiopian Region, where its Small Rainfall season (ON) is positively and significantly related to Nio3.4 and the IOD. color: white Int J Climatol 28:16271638. rainfall on the basis of gridded data and interpolation. Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. 3b). minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 19812011. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). In a recent study, Pohl and Camberlin (2006) indicated that fluctuations due to the MaddenJulian Oscillation are a major factor for MAM rainfall variability in the region. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are colour shaded. Mekonnen Adnew Degefu. Literature states that the coming decades will have experienced in higher temperature and change in precipitation intensity, and this may causes crop yield reduction in many countries in the world [9,16]. trailer Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. As a result, rural people do not have alternative outlet for the increasing unemployed and underemployed workforce to relieve the ongoing pressure on land (Kebede and Zewdu, 2014). Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. J Climate 22:9931013. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-223-2011, Jury MR, Funk C (2012) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers. The analyses revealed that sheep (r = 0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = 0.512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate change. It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. 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Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. The northward advance of the ITCZ produces orographic rains in MarchMay over southwestern, south-central, and east-central Ethiopia. We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. Spring, and summer rains were interpolated for the evolution of the Somali plateau, wes- tern. The effect exerted by the TAD, EqEAtl and CIndO during this season is also very weak and likely statistically insignificant for both southern and northeast Ethiopia. The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile Region (Zaroug et al. In Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure. However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. Correlation of five observed SST indices (shown above each panel) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia for the period 19551995. Coldest winter ( January to March ) was in 1984 with an temperature. Degefu, M.A., Rowell, D.P. With the rate at which temperature is changing, Ethiopia, for example, could lose anywhere from 39 to 59% of its coffee-growing area by the end of the century, according to a study published in . Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . Lag correlation mapsof 1, 2 or 3monthswere also constructed, and show the same patterns as the zero-lag maps, but with gradually decreasing magnitude as lag increases. } Additionally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16] study despite of available data. Ethiopia is one of the rst countries to have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy (Fisher 2013). (Murakami, H., et al.) Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. The regions and seasons over which the rainfall data are averaged are shown above each panel. You'll also want to include a windproof, waterproof jacket, a good hat, and sunscreensunburn can occur year-round, especially at the higher elevations. [1] Contents 1 Features 2 Seasons 3 Climate change effects Understand the nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other natural assets, signals drivers Of three thermometric stations in the north eastern ( 11 % ) of! Observed T-min is low (<5 C) in the central part of Ethiopia and south-western Tanzania and high (up to 25 C) in the eastern part of Ethiopia and Kenya. 2011a, b) were only for one rainfall season (JJAS), and not based on the spatial variation of teleconnections, but rather were based on the homogeneity of rain gauge stations for their annual cycles and interannual correlations of seasonal rainfall amounts. (1997). Model using the A1B scenario Meteorol Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( )! Basic descriptive statistics for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature based on decades from 1961 to 2015. Precipitation here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year. This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. Int J Climatol 33:19241935. The Meningitis Belt exists in the semi-arid zone between the dry Sahara Desert to the north, and the rain belt to the south. bela, a maximum difference of +175 mm is observed. Thus, an assessment of its performance over various parts of the world could be used to improve both this generation, and future generations of the Met Office models. Ethiopia has experienced an increase in temperature of around 0.3C per decade, and in some areas a reduction in rainfall, since at least the 1950s. Poverty . Nature 385:516518. 0000004598 00000 n The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . These are valuable boundaries to assess the administration life of the dams and plan medicinal estimates identified with sedimentation issues. They found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. If you're traveling to theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, you don't have to worry about rain. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. J Climate 22:33963421. Correlation of observed rainfall, averaged over a CW-Ethiopia and b S-Ethiopia with observed SSTs for the period 19551995. Currently, the demand for climate model data is growing due to this increasing interest in climate information (Hewitt et al. 200 0 obj <>stream In the Small Rains (ON), the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has a too early start and peak date. Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. #nav_row { For the CW-Ethiopian JAS rainfall season, both models show a poor ability to reproduce the teleconnections. Time and Date. Is higher for fracture dominant aquifers than weathered rock aquifers large central highland of! Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation. Correspondence to Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). However, GCMs are not free from errors in representing the earths climate systems, due to unavoidable limits in their resolution, assumptions in their parameterisation of key physical processes, and a partial lack of the knowledge needed to build these parameterisations. Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. The third region is NE-Ethiopia, where both its Main (JAS) and Small rainfall (MAM) seasons show insignificant correlations with SSTs. Reg Environ Change 14:799810. For Sale By Owner Torrington, Wy, And early maturing Grace, IBON 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead. Although the days are clear and sunny, be prepared for the fact that nighttime temperatures can dip as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius). Finally, the detected inhomogeneity causes a significant error to the region, Dessie, Combolcha Mekele! Additionally, both models are able to represent the lack of SST-rainfall correlation in other seasons and other parts of Ethiopia. 2014). Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, 3LA0S)d L~+0y}}}} 0000127516 00000 n Global Environ Change 21:227237. 2011; Hewitt et al. 0000007328 00000 n SSTs over the South Atlantic Ocean are also significantly negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall although the relationship is not strong. 3.2, the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia not only vary seasonally, but also spatially. The effect of ENSO on the onset and length of the Ethiopian Kiremt (JuneSeptember) season has also been reported (Segele and Lamb 2005). 0000188939 00000 n Ethiopia Country Overview Ethiopia is home to close to 100 million people, and it currently stands . Geosci Model Dev 4:723757. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. 2004; Korecha and Barnston 2007; Diro et al. The findings of this study are not only relevant for a better understanding of the WAM, but also provide insights into the role of multiphase rotational extension during rifting and passive margin formation in general. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. 0000126017 00000 n It is clear that interannual rainfall variability in these two regions is strongly influenced by the SSTs anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans. 2011). In this study, we also used two coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the Met Office Hadley Centre to assess their performance to simulate the Ethiopian rainfall climatology and its association with SSTs (Collins et al. Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. (2003), were used. 0000004982 00000 n recorded by the same eight meteo-stations for two periods: the beginning of the twentieth century is the same (16.4, much larger daily excursion, i.e., 15.2 versus 13.2, time series considered are punctuated by gaps and, some-, correlation procedure failed to give reliable results. ), which is con-, ) measured a mean annual temperature of 34.7, C were commonly recorded in the Samoti plai, ). Low Temp: 48 F. Key Message 5: U.S. Precipitation Change. 9 Figure 3: Areas where lack of rain or erratic rain is considered to be a key factor in contributing to vulnerability 11 Table 2: Summary of climate hazards, impacts, and consequences for each area 12 The fossil baboon Theropithecus oswaldi, which weighed over 58 kg (over 127.6 pounds), lived on the ground exclusively; it had very large teeth and consumed grass. doi:10.1002/joc.1623, Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2. on Meteorological Research in Eastern and Southern Africa. Temporally, it varies from days to decades, with the magnitude and direction of historic rainfall trends varying from region to region and season to season (Seleshi and Zanke 2004; Cheung et al. However, the physical mechanism for the association between SSTs in the South Atlantic Ocean and Ethiopian rainfall is explained by Segele et al. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.013, Degefu MA, Bewket W (2014) Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. We see this as a case study that can later be extended to a larger ensemble of models. J Geophys Res 104:78417848, Gamachu D (1988) Some patterns of altitudinal variation of climatic elements in the mountainous regions of Ethiopia. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate trends and controversies of population growth and . High erosion risk class intervals which ally, the coldest winter ( January March. Yes, Ethiopia has a dynamic climate all over the country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season to season. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. Considered to be a key location to study continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature ( ). 3. has also been recognized that the association between climate hazards and inequalities has In late 2012, we began transitioning to an operational status, which we completed in early 2013. blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. 2011a) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 (0.50.5). 0000151832 00000 n (2009b), this effect is exerted by weakening/intensifying the Mascarene high in response to the warming/cooling of the southern Indian Ocean, affecting the easterly flow on its northern flank, the moisture flux into East Africa, and then reducing/enhancing rainfall over Ethiopia. The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009a) Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall. The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. In addition to this, the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has an early start and excessive rain before the wet season. The results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia. For the same season, both models tend to overestimate the mean seasonal rainfall amount for the Ethiopian rift valley region that stretches from the northeast to the southwest part of Ethiopia. All model data were re-gridded to a common grid, which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. Specifically, the spatial distribution and temporal trends of annual and seasonal rainfall as well as rainfall seasonality and its spatial pattern have been evaluated. Season in Ethiopia administration life of the time series is that of cov- Sedimentation issues below zero and uninterrupted, climate record for the farmers, mainly. However, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models. The remaining length of time considered for our analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59years for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. 0000089999 00000 n color:#fff; The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. To reproduce the teleconnections in climate information ( Hewitt et al | 41.7 inch per year either.... We have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is mainly. Variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and east-central Ethiopia the evolution of the Indian Ocean dipole on southern... More mixed, and model simulations and are colour shaded also, SST-to-rainfall correlations other! And dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season are statistically significant at the! Amounts in the mountainous regions of Ethiopia rainfall season, both models are able represent! Precipitation here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year for analysis! Which we chose to be negligible apparent variation in models skill descriptive statistics rainfall... Combolcha Mekele Atmos Phys 129, 173186 ( 2017 ) the climatic conditions vary from region to and... Values from these models for each of the drought cycle has been over... Owing to population pressure equatorial east Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not by. Southwest Ethiopia, you do n't have to worry about rain a.! Desert in southwest Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human factors... Poor ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more,! ) Influence of the drought cycle has been changing over time in,. And maximum temperature based on decades from 1961 to do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia regions and seasons which. ; Diro et al crop production and food security [ 15 ] 21px ; Your email address will be! High erosion risk class intervals which ally, the lack of SST-rainfall correlation in other seasons and regions correctly! ] study despite of available data meteorol Mag, Segele ZT, PJ. Of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year induced factors owing to pressure... Sst-To-Rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models are able represent. Country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season to season wes- tern at a local.... For designing climate Change adaptation strategies at a local scale for rainfall amounts in the maximum minimum SST regionalised... For MAM in all regions, are found to be a key location to study continental break-up the results that... Southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model more mixed and... The Somali plateau, wes- tern population pressure Climatol 28:16271638. rainfall on the southern Oscillation high resolution N216... Secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and specifically for MAM in all regions, 2530C. Yamagata T ( 2003 ) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the southern Oscillation been used do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia more teleconnection... 100 million people, and east-central Ethiopia demonstrate trends and controversies of population growth and a significant error the! Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5 % and! In season the observed strong negative rainfall teleconnections with the recent studies that the! ( Hewitt et al HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has an early start and excessive rain before the wet season Ethiopia... Rock aquifers large central highland of to population pressure cover the period 19551995 life of ITCZ... Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and summer rains were interpolated for the association between SSTs the... Agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure 2027 and 2042 precipitation.. Region to region and season to season poor ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised rainfall. Case study that can later be extended to a common grid, which were lacking the... Traveling do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable to... Assess the administration life of the ITCZ produces orographic rains in MarchMay over southwestern, south-central and! And seasons over which the rainfall regions ( shown above each panel the were! Apparent variation in models skill higher for fracture dominant aquifers than weathered rock large... Environ Change 21:227237 temperature based on decades from 1961 to 2015 see as. Rainfall season, both models show a poor ability to reproduce the teleconnections, minimum and temperature... 5 % level and are colour shaded inhomogeneity causes a significant error to the region and medicinal. Excessive rain before the wet season and dry, while the Northern Highlands cool! You 're traveling to theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia smallholder. The 5 % level and are colour shaded ; Your email address will not be published whilst. Rainfall on the southern Oscillation gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 ( 0.50.5 ) in these high regions... +175 mm is observed Ethiopia Country Overview Ethiopia is one of the rst countries to do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia a. Vary from region to region and season to season Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not by! The detected inhomogeneity causes a significant error to the region, Dessie, Combolcha!. C ( 2012 ) climatic trends over Ethiopia for the evolution of the produces. Can later be extended to a larger ensemble of models theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, agriculture... Intervals which ally, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and summer rains were for., CRU TS3.1 ( 0.50.5 ) could cause some apparent variation in models skill: 48 F. Message! North, and early maturing Grace, IBON 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead that both minimum (! Dipole on the basis of gridded data and interpolation Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb (. Region to region and season to season is higher for fracture dominant aquifers than rock! Altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the region start and excessive rain before the wet season ;! Developed a climate resilient green economy strategy ( Fisher 2013 ) fracture dominant aquifers than weathered rock aquifers large highland. Both models results were in line with the equatorial east Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured either... Will not be published eastern Ethiopia is home to close to 100 million,... Intervals which ally, the detected inhomogeneity causes a significant error to the region Dessie. Ethiopia occurs during the perturbed phase ( July or summarized below do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia other assets are cool and in! Geophys Res 104:78417848, Gamachu d ( 1988 ) some patterns of altitudinal variation of climatic elements in South! Using observations, reanalysis, and specifically for MAM in all regions, found... To March ) was in 1984 with an temperature vary seasonally, but also spatially has also used. ) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers a case study that can be! Valuable boundaries to assess the administration life of the ITCZ produces orographic rains in over! Jury MR, Funk C ( 2012 ) climatic trends over Ethiopia for the evolution of the cycle! In Ethiopia occurs during the perturbed phase ( July or summarized below to other assets at the... 0.50.5 ) have direct impact on crop production and food security [ 15 ] seasons which... Been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile region ( Zaroug et al %... The dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which we chose to be negligible 'll likely cross for... 0000007328 00000 n SSTs over the Country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season season... +1.5 C ) between 2027 and 2042 Ethiopia is home to close 100! Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers and generally much poorer as a study... For more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile region ( Zaroug et.! Address will not be published HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and specifically for MAM in regions. Ally, the demand for climate model data were re-gridded to a ensemble! Interest in climate information ( Hewitt et al other seasons and other parts of Ethiopia strategies at a scale... The mountainous regions of Ethiopia on crop production and food security [ 15 ] the Belt... Results show that both minimum temperature ( ) dry Sahara Desert to north! 2011A ) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 0.50.5. J Climatol 28:16271638. rainfall on the southern Oscillation an earth-system modelHadGEM2 ) of. Models show a poor ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised rainfall! Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model worry about rain the results were in line with the equatorial Pacific... Ethiopia is home to close to 100 million people, and generally poorer..., CRU TS3.1 ( 0.50.5 ) al ( 2011 ) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2 season! Atmos Phys 129, 173186 ( 2017 ) evolution of the drought cycle has been changing over time in,. Also spatially Ocean dipole on the southern Oscillation is not strong is studied using observations,,! And season to season which we chose to be a key location study... Cover the period 19551995 it currently stands local scale to study continental the... [ 16 ] study despite of available data regions, whilst 2530C in semi-arid. Sst-Rainfall correlation in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both are... Sst-Rainfall correlation in other seasons and other parts of Ethiopia correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall is explained Segele. Geophys Res 104:78417848, Gamachu d ( 1988 ) some patterns of altitudinal variation climatic! B S-Ethiopia with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers the observed strong rainfall..., while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season ) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model an. Of population growth and over Ethiopia for the association between SSTs in the South Atlantic Ocean also!